Will Solar Panel Prices Fall or Rise in 2026? Market Trends Explained

Islamabad: The outlook for solar panel prices in Pakistan in 2026 largely depends on market conditions observed during 2025, a year that witnessed a significant decline in prices due to global oversupply—particularly from Chinese manufacturers—and relative stability of the Pakistani rupee.

Throughout most of 2025, solar panel prices remained on a downward trend and stayed largely stable during the final weeks of the year, mainly because demand typically slows during the winter season. However, a slight increase was observed in the last few days of the year, raising questions about price trends in 2026.

According to Muhammad Gulbaz, a solar industry expert, prices have already risen by around 8 to 11 percent in recent days, with a further increase of 10 to 15 percent expected in the near future. He attributed this trend to rising module prices in China, which directly affect imported solar panels in Pakistan. Gulbaz believes that importers purchasing panels now may benefit from better margins later. He added that at the start of 2026, per-watt prices—currently around Rs27 to Rs28—could increase to Rs38 or Rs39.

However, Engineer Noor Badshah offered a more cautious outlook, stating that based on December 2025 rates, no major price hike is expected in 2026. He suggested that prices across different brands may rise by only 3 to 5 percent, reflecting a normal market adjustment rather than a sharp surge.

Engineer Noor Badshah further explained that global factors, such as China’s policy changes in 2025—including the withdrawal of VAT rebates and partial production cuts—led to an approximate 9 percent increase in solar module prices worldwide. While mild upward pressure may persist in 2026, global oversupply has not completely ended, reducing the likelihood of a significant price spike.

In the Pakistani market, solar panel prices had reached historically low levels by the end of 2025, with some panels available for as little as Rs18 to Rs20 per watt. Following a modest increase, experts now expect either price stability or a slight rise during 2026, generally within the range of 3 to 10 percent.

Hasnat Khan, Senior Vice Chairman of the Pakistan Solar Association, also confirmed a recent increase of around 5 percent in solar panel prices. However, he noted that seasonal changes are likely to reduce demand in the coming months, which should prevent any major increase. He expects overall price stability in 2026, with a possible mild increase of 5 to 10 percent at most.

In conclusion, while a sharp rise in solar panel prices in 2026 appears unlikely, market experts anticipate modest increases or relative stability, making solar energy remain an attractive option for consumers in Pakistan.