Surge in Global Oil Prices Raises Risk of New Inflation Wave in Pakistan
A sharp increase in global oil prices has raised concerns about a new wave of inflation in Pakistan.
According to a research report released on Sunday by Arif Habib Limited, if global crude oil prices exceed **$100 per barrel**, Pakistan’s inflation rate could rise to **9–11 percent in the coming months**.
The report warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East and a possible disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, which could directly impact Pakistan’s economy.
It added that if crude oil prices remain around **$100 per barrel**, Pakistan’s **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** could increase by **2.8 to 3.7 percent**.
According to the report, the price of Brent crude oil, which was about **$68.70 per barrel at the start of 2026**, had risen to **$92.69 per barrel by March 8**, marking an increase of nearly **35 percent**. During the week, Brent crude also touched a high of **$94.51 per barrel**.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to **$90.90 per barrel**, recording its **largest weekly increase of around 35.6 percent in futures trading history**.
The sudden surge in global oil prices has already forced Pakistan to pass some of the burden onto local consumers. The report noted that higher oil prices mainly affect inflation through **transport and food costs**.
Fuel and transport account for nearly **6 percent of Pakistan’s CPI basket**, and a **20 percent increase in fuel prices** could raise the overall inflation rate by about **1.2 percent**. 📈⛽
