Pakistan’s Economy in 2024: Mixed Trends and Challenges Ahead for 2025

Islamabad:The year 2024 will be remembered as a year of both economic challenges and gradual recovery for Pakistan. The country started the year facing several crises, including fears of an impending default, while a shortage of US dollars prompted a crackdown on the dollar mafia under the direction of the Chief of Army Staff. Despite these challenges, there have been some positive developments in the economy, though experts are cautious about the long-term impact.

### **Experts Share Their Views on Pakistan’s Economic Outlook:**

#### **Muhammad Hanif Goher (Business Tycoon):**
Karachi-based businessman Muhammad Hanif Goher expressed that while there have been some positive trends, Pakistan’s economy is still not in a stable state.
– **Positive Indicators:** He pointed out improvements such as a rise in the Pakistan Stock Exchange, a reduction in interest rates, a halt in the dollar’s rise, and a drop in electricity bills as encouraging signs.
– **Decline in the Construction Sector:** However, Goher emphasized the ongoing decline in the construction industry, citing a lack of purchasing power and the inability of overseas Pakistanis to invest in the sector.
– **Need for Political Stability:** He stressed that political stability is crucial for economic growth, stating that once political conditions stabilize, economic improvement will naturally follow.

#### **Tariq Malik (Senior Analyst):**
Veteran journalist and analyst Tariq Malik acknowledged that 2023 was a particularly tough year for Pakistan’s economy, with exports declining and inflation soaring. However, he noted that the country is still grappling with political instability in 2024.
– **Positive Trends in 2024:** Malik mentioned some improvements, such as an increase in foreign exchange reserves following import restrictions, successful negotiations with the IMF, and the stabilization of the dollar.
– **Focus on Real Economy:** Malik also stressed the importance of addressing Pakistan’s “real economy,” particularly agriculture and industry. He noted that improvements in these sectors could lead to sustainable economic stability.

#### **Shahryar Butt (Stock Market Expert):**
According to stock market expert Shahryar Butt, 2024 has proven to be a “game-changer” for Pakistan’s economy.
– **IMF Agreement and Positive Reforms:** Butt highlighted that after the IMF agreement, crucial measures were taken to stop dollar smuggling, increase tax revenue, and implement necessary reforms, which have had a positive impact on the stock market.
– **Stock Market Performance:** Pakistan’s stock market, according to Butt, has performed exceptionally well and has been recognized as one of the best-performing markets globally. He attributed this success to the government’s tough but necessary policy decisions.

#### **Muhammad Adnan Paracha (Overseas Employment Expert):**
Muhammad Adnan Paracha, Vice President of the Pakistan Overseas Employees Promoters Association, observed a decline in the number of workers going abroad in 2024 compared to 2023.
– **Reduced Overseas Migration:** Paracha noted that while there were efforts to increase migration, particularly to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, issues such as visa restrictions hindered growth in this sector. However, he expressed hope that with more focused efforts, 2025 could see a higher number of workers migrating abroad.

#### **Mushhood Ali Khan (Automobile Sector Expert):**
Mushhood Ali Khan, an expert in the automobile industry, noted that the continuous reduction in interest rates throughout 2024 was a welcome development for the sector.
– **Vehicle Prices and Future Expectations:** He pointed out that vehicle prices had surged in 2024, but with the continued decrease in interest rates, he expects vehicle prices to come down in 2025, providing some relief to consumers.

### **Looking Ahead to 2025:**
Despite some positive trends in 2024, experts remain cautious about the future. The real economy, especially agriculture and manufacturing, remains a key area for reform. While there has been some improvement in the stock market and external financial stability, much work is needed to ensure sustainable growth.

Political stability, continued economic reforms, and diversification of exports will be crucial to navigating the challenges of 2025. If Pakistan can build on the positive steps taken in 2024, the future may hold promise for a more resilient economy. However, political and economic uncertainty still poses significant risks that need to be addressed to ensure long-term stability.