Global Instability Rising, Major Conflicts Possible in 2026: CFR Report
A report by the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned that the world is rapidly moving toward greater instability and violence, with several dangerous global conflicts potentially emerging in 2026. The report cautions that these developments could pose serious threats to global peace and US national security.
According to the report, tensions are expected to increase on multiple fronts, including Gaza, Ukraine, Pakistan-India relations, and Afghanistan. It also warns that crises in Africa and the Middle East could intensify, leading to worsening humanitarian disasters. The CFR noted that threats to global peace have reached their highest level since World War II.
The assessment was prepared by the CFR’s affiliate, the Center for Preventive Action, where US foreign policy experts reviewed potential conflicts around the world and ranked them based on their likelihood and potential impact.
The report stated that while the Trump administration attempted to reduce tensions in conflicts such as Gaza, Ukraine, Congo, India, and Pakistan, in some cases hardline policies and pressure further complicated situations. Experts also criticized the weakening of institutions and funding related to peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
Several potential security risks linked to Pakistan were highlighted in the report and categorized as having a medium likelihood and impact. These include the possibility of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan, driven by rising militant activity in occupied Kashmir and stricter security measures. The report also warned of a potential resurgence of fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan due to renewed cross-border militant attacks.
The report emphasized that the United States faces heightened risks because of its extensive global alliances and security commitments.
Among the most dangerous potential conflicts identified were intensified clashes between Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, possible US military action in Venezuela, and rising political violence within the United States. Other serious concerns included a potential war between Iran and Israel, increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan, confrontation between Russia and NATO, and nuclear tests by North Korea.
