Netanyahu Fails to Win Majority in Israeli Elections; Historic Success for Arab Parties; Formation of New Government Becomes Difficult

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM (Daily Qudrat): In Israel’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition has failed to secure a clear majority, while Arab political parties have achieved extraordinary success, raising their representation in parliament to a historic level. According to election results emerging on Wednesday, Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc is likely to get 53 seats, the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot 48, and Arab parties 19 seats.

After these results, difficult negotiations among political parties are expected to form a new government in Israel.

According to a report published on 28 October in the Saudi newspaper Arab News, after the counting of votes at ordinary polling stations was completed, Netanyahu’s bloc is 8 seats short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

However, because the counting of votes cast by military personnel, diplomats and others under special procedures remains, the final distribution of seats may change.

Israeli newspapers The Times of Israel and The Jerusalem Post also reported the seat distribution of 53, 48 and 19, citing Central Election Committee figures. The Israeli parliament, the Knesset, has a total of 120 seats, and any party or bloc needs the support of at least 61 members to form a government.

Netanyahu Gets 53 Seats; Opposition and Arab Parties Together at 67

According to preliminary election results, Netanyahu’s Likud party and its right-wing and religious allies are positioned to win a total of 53 seats. On the other hand, anti-government political parties led by Gadi Eisenkot are likely to get 48 seats.

Arab political parties have positioned themselves to win a total of 19 seats, after which the combined seats of the opposition and Arab parties come to 67. This number is more than the 61 seats required to form a government; however, it does not mean that all parties will necessarily agree to form a joint government.

There are significant political, ideological and security-related differences among Israel’s opposition parties, while some Jewish political leaders have reservations about including Arab parties directly in a governing coalition.

The election results have put Netanyahu in a difficult situation, as he will have to secure the support of more members in addition to his existing allies, while the opposition will also have to build consensus among various parties to gain power.

Historic Success of Arab Parties; Potential for a Decisive Role in Israeli Politics

The most prominent development of the Israeli elections is the extraordinary success of Arab political parties, which are positioned to win a total of 19 seats.

According to Israeli media, this will be a historic level of parliamentary representation for Arab parties.

Arab voters participated heavily in the elections this time. According to Central Election Committee figures, overall voter turnout across the country was 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. Unusual voting activity was also seen in Arab-populated areas.

In their election campaigns, Arab political parties emphasised issues such as equal rights for Arab citizens, crime prevention, economic opportunities, political representation and changing Netanyahu’s government.

The growing parliamentary strength of Arab parties could prove decisive in forming the new government, especially in a situation where neither Netanyahu nor his opponents have been able to secure 61 seats on their own as a major political bloc.

Likud Largest Party, Gadi Eisenkot’s Party Second

According to the election results, Netanyahu’s Likud party has emerged as the largest single political party with 26 seats, while former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s party Yesh Atid is likely to get 21 seats.

Reports indicate that the Arab party Joint List and another political party, Together, are to get 12 seats each, while the Democrats are positioned to win 8 seats.

Similarly, Israel Beiteinu, the Arab party Ra’am, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Shas are likely to get 7 seats each. The joint election alliance of Religious Zionism and Zehut is expected to get 6 seats. These figures show the preliminary election distribution and may change after the counting of special votes is completed.

Netanyahu Made an Emergency Appeal Regarding Arab Voters During the Elections

During the elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu repeatedly appealed to his supporters to vote. In an emergency message posted on social media on Tuesday, he claimed that the voting rate in Arab-populated areas was higher than usual, while participation by right-wing voters was relatively low.

Netanyahu warned his supporters that Israel’s future was at stake and that they should immediately head to polling stations.

After the significant success of Arab parties in the election results, their parliamentary importance has increased further. However, the participation of Arab voters and the opposition’s success cannot be directly described as the success of a single political bloc, because formal consensus among parties will be necessary to form a government.

How Will a New Government Be Formed in Israel? The President’s Role Has Become Important

According to the Israeli constitution and parliamentary procedure, after the elections, President Isaac Herzog will consult with representatives of political parties and invite a leader who he expects can secure a parliamentary majority to form a government.

It is not necessary that the head of the party with the most seats become prime minister. What will really matter is which leader succeeds in securing a majority of 61 members with the support of various parties.

According to news agency AFP, the leader nominated by the president is in principle given 28 days to form a government, while the period can be extended by another 14 days if needed.

If neither Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot can secure a majority, possibilities such as a national unity government, a minority government or new elections could emerge.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has previously been part of a non-Netanyahu government, while some Joint List leaders have indicated the possibility of providing parliamentary support to the opposition to end Netanyahu’s government.

Unusual Turnout in Elections; Final Votes Could Change Results

In the elections held on 27 October, 77.7 percent of voters exercised their right to vote, an unusual participation compared with recent decades. This high rate is being linked to severe political polarisation in the country, the Gaza war, tensions with Iran and public interest in Netanyahu’s political future.

According to the Israeli Central Election Committee, even after the counting of ordinary votes is completed, the counting of about 600,000 special votes remains. These include ballots cast by military personnel and citizens voting through other special methods. The counting of these votes is expected to be completed in the coming days, after which the final distribution of parliamentary seats will emerge.

At present, Netanyahu’s bloc, with 53 seats, lacks a clear majority, while the opposition and Arab parties are together positioned at 67 seats. In this situation, the decision on Israel’s next government will be made not only by the election results but also by the negotiations among political parties in the coming days.