Pakistan Sees Economic Recovery with Record Decline in Inflation in First Four Months of FY 2024

Islamabad:The Ministry of Finance has reported that Pakistan has experienced a stronger-than-expected economic recovery during the first four months of the current fiscal year, with signs of economic stability emerging. This period has also witnessed a remarkable decline in inflation, reflecting positive progress in the country’s economic landscape.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, inflation averaged 8.67% during the first four months of FY 2024, a sharp decrease from 28.45% during the same period last year. This drop in inflation has brought some relief to consumers and businesses alike.

**Food Prices Show Decline**

In terms of food prices, several staple items have become more affordable, contributing to the overall reduction in inflation:

– **Wheat Flour**: The price of a 20 kg bag of wheat flour saw a decline, from **Rs 1943** in July 2024 to **Rs 1832** in October, a decrease of nearly **33.5%** compared to last year’s **Rs 2756** in October.

– **Rice**: The price of a kilogram of rice remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations between **Rs 207** in July and **Rs 209** in October. This was still cheaper than last year, when rice cost **Rs 230** per kg in October.

– **Cooking Oil and Ghee**: The price of cooking oil decreased by approximately **9.5%** over the past year. In July, the price of cooking oil was **Rs 2672**, which fell to **Rs 2647** by October. Similarly, ghee prices saw a **Rs 25** increase during this period.

**Dals and Meat Prices**

– **Lentils**: There was a mixed trend in lentil prices. **Masoor dal** saw a decrease of **Rs 19**, dropping from **Rs 325** in July to **Rs 306** in October. However, **Moong dal** and **Mash dal** showed increases. Moong dal went from **Rs 337** in July to **Rs 357** in October, and Mash dal rose from **Rs 573** in July to **Rs 542** in October, a **6% decrease** compared to last year.

– **Beef**: The price of bone-in beef increased by approximately **4.5%**, rising from **Rs 966** in July to **Rs 1005** by October. In contrast, **mutton** prices saw a more modest increase of **1.5%**, from **Rs 1903** in July to **Rs 1933** in October.

**Poultry and Dairy Products**

– **Chicken**: The price of live broiler chicken increased by **15%** from **Rs 381** per kg in July to **Rs 442** per kg in October, compared to **Rs 349** per kg last year.

– **Eggs**: The price of farm eggs saw a significant increase of **50%**, rising from **Rs 250** per dozen in July to **Rs 305** per dozen in October.

– **Milk**: The price of fresh milk increased by **4 rupees**, from **Rs 192** per liter in July to **Rs 196** in October.

**Sugar and Vegetables**

– **Sugar**: Sugar prices saw a notable decrease, dropping by **10%** from **Rs 146** per kg in July to **Rs 134** per kg in October. This was lower than last year’s price of **Rs 148** per kg in October.

– **Potatoes**: The price of potatoes rose slightly by **Rs 4**, from **Rs 98** per kg in July to **Rs 102** per kg in October.

– **Onions**: Onions saw a substantial price increase of **37%** from **Rs 112** per kg in July to **Rs 153** per kg in October, compared to **Rs 106** per kg last year.

– **Tomatoes**: The price of tomatoes decreased by **20%** over the four months, falling from **Rs 165** per kg in July to **Rs 138** per kg in October, though still higher than last year’s price of **Rs 112** per kg.

**Energy and Fuel**

– **Electricity**: The price of electricity saw a modest reduction, with the cost per unit dropping from **Rs 8** in October last year to around **Rs 6** in October 2024.

– **Petrol**: Petrol prices have also decreased by approximately **11%**, from **Rs 277** per liter in July to **Rs 249** per liter in November.

The combination of falling food prices, energy costs, and inflation offers a glimpse of economic recovery in Pakistan. The reduction in inflation is particularly significant for the average consumer, who has faced rising living costs in recent years. While these improvements are encouraging, experts emphasize that consistent policy measures are necessary to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.