Fitch Predicts Pakistan’s Current PML-N Government to Last 18 Months; Technocratic Government Expected Next
Islamabad:International credit rating agency Fitch has forecasted that Pakistan’s current Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government will remain in power for another 18 months, after which the country could see a technocratic government.
In its released report on Pakistan’s political and economic situation, Fitch stated that the current government, in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is implementing comprehensive economic reforms. Fitch emphasized that Pakistan faces economic risks due to pressures from external payments amidst difficult decisions under the IMF program.
Fitch’s institutional credit rating agency has expressed hope that inflation rates in Pakistan could potentially decrease by the end of the current fiscal year and that the State Bank may reduce interest rates to 14%. The report also highlighted that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder and chairman Imran Khan will likely remain under scrutiny in the near future.
The report mentioned significant success for independent candidates in the upcoming general elections in February, who received substantial support from PTI’s founder. Fitch noted that Pakistan’s economic recovery faces delicate conditions, with protests in urban areas affecting economic activities while political instability could adversely impact the economy.
According to the report, the exchange rate is predicted to be Rs. 290 by the end of the current fiscal year, rising to Rs. 310 by 2025, with the achievement of budget targets under the IMF program deemed challenging. However, there is a possibility of reducing financial losses from 7.4% to less than 6.7%.
The report further warned of potential floods or natural disasters posing risks to Pakistan’s economy and agriculture.
