Firewall Obstacle to Achieving $1 Trillion Economy Target, Experts Warn

Islamabad: Global economic expert Professor Stephen Derickson’s 5E-based economic development plan and policies have not had much impact, prompting the Pakistani government to devise a new five-year economic strategy aimed at growing the country’s economy to $1 trillion. However, experts caution that achieving key targets under this new plan will be impossible unless the restrictions on social media, including the firewall, are lifted.
The new five-year plan, formulated by the Ministry of Planning, aims to increase the literacy rate to 70% and reduce poverty to 13% by 2028. The plan, which is set to be officially launched by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif soon, is designed to address long-term economic goals.
Previously, Professor Stephen Derickson, a UK-based economist, also proposed a development strategy for Pakistan, but it did not garner significant traction. Under the previous government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), a firewall was installed to regulate social media at a cost of PKR 39 billion. However, the firewall has reportedly dealt a severe blow to the Information Technology (IT) sector, hindering the government’s ability to meet critical economic development targets.
The government’s new economic plan, titled 5Es, seeks to transform Pakistan into a $1 trillion economy by 2035. However, experts believe that under current economic conditions, the country’s GDP is unlikely to exceed $500 billion in the next decade. The plan calls for an annual growth rate of 9.8% over the next five years to achieve the $1 trillion target by 2035.
In an interview with Express, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said that by 2047, Pakistan and India would both complete 100 years of independence, and it remains to be seen where the country will stand at that time. Responding to questions, he clarified that the government’s plan is a strategic document, whereas Professor Stephen’s plan is more of an economic program, and the government intends to implement both simultaneously.
According to the government’s plan, it will be rolled out in the form of 13 five-year projects that will be uniform across all ministries and provinces. The energy sector aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources to 10%, reduce subsidies, and tackle circular debt to ensure the sector’s sustainability. In the transport sector, the goal is to boost Pakistan Railways’ share of passenger traffic from 5% to 15%, while freight traffic is expected to rise from 8% to 25%, contingent on the completion of the ML-1 project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The plan also ensures the creation of 1.5 million new jobs annually and aims to improve Pakistan’s ranking in the global Human Development Index (HDI). Key education goals include ensuring 28% completion of primary education and 43% completion of secondary and higher education by 2028.
Experts stress that for Pakistan to reach these ambitious targets, it must remove the barriers to digital growth, including the controversial firewall, to fully leverage technology for economic advancement.